Worth The Bag?

On Monday, the Eagles announced they had reached an agreement with Pro Bowl quarterback Jalen Hurts on an five-year, $255-million extension, a $51 million annual average value (AAV) that made him the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback on a yearly basis.

Was the deal more team- or player-friendly?

Per the Linear Regression model that tracks AAV range and predicts a likely outcome, the contract was a fair-market deal for both the player and team.

The model’s projected range for Hurts was between $48.357 million and $56.575 million, with Hurts’ $51 million annually falling within the projected range. 

How Does the Linear Regression Model Work?

The Linear Regression Model is an algorithm that compiles the last five years of quarterbacks in the NFL tracking more than 130 variables.

The model was optimized only including the most statistically significant variables. These input variables produce output z-scores, which are converted into the salary range shown above. 

Linear Regression Model Variables

The variables that the Linear Regression Model analyzed are age, contract number, Pro Bowls, games played, win percentage, completion percentage, big time throw rate,  turnover worthy play rate, interceptions, passing TDs, pass yards per game, rushing attempts per game, rushing touchdowns per game, and pressure-to-sack rate.*

These variables are weighted based on their statistical importance and have values associated with them. The model projects a high- and low-end range in order to account for some variability.**

*Most statistics were from the 2022 season as that was Hurts’ contract season.
**The Linear Regression Model also had several adjustments to better reflect the QB Market.

Hurts Statistics:

Variable	Hurts
Age (in 2023)	25
Contract Number	2
Pro Bowls	1
Games	15
Win %	93.33%
Completion %	66.52%
Big Time Throw Rate	4.10%
Turnover Worthy Play Rate	1.90%
Interceptions	6
Passing Touchdowns	22
Passing Yards / Game	246.73
Rushing Attempts / Game	8.20
Rushing Touchdowns / Game	0.87
Pressure to Sack Rate	22.10%

Another Approach – Market Comps:

The more traditional method of determining salary value is by comparing similarly situated players.

This way, recent players entering their second contract should be prioritized. 

Daniel Jones (2023 offseason extension)

The  Giants paid Jones a four-year, $160 million contract ($40 million AAV).

However, the Jones contract is strange compared to contracts for Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

The Jones contract, unlike those other two, is inflated by incentives. Both the Mahomes and Allen contracts have incentives, but they are not included in the base contract.

Therefore, the Jones contract should really be framed as a four-year, $125-million deal ($31.25 million AAV), not the $40 million AAV that inflates the QB market significantly.

Variable	Jones	Hurts
Age (@ start of season)	26	25
Contract Number	2	2
Pro Bowls	0	1
Games	16	15
Win %	59.38%	93.33%
Completion %	67.16%	66.52%
Big Time Throw Rate	1.40%	4.10%
Turnover Worthy Play Rate	3.1%	1.90%
Interceptions	5	6
Passing Touchdowns	15	22
Passing Yards / Game	200.38	246.73
Rushing Attempts / Game	4.06	8.20
Rushing Touchdowns / Game	0.44	0.87
Pressure to Sack Rate	17.80%	22.10%

Hurts out-produced or produced similarly to Jones in 10 out of 14 relevant statistical categories. He was a more reliable passer and rusher.

Based on these categories, Hurts should clearly outearn Jones. 

Kyler Murray (2022 extension)

The Cardinals paid Murray a five-year, $230.5 million contract ($46.1 million AAV). If this signing was adjusted to 2023, it would be worth a little under $49,000,000 AAV.*

Variable	Murray (‘21)	Hurts
Age (@ start of season)	25	25
Contract Number	2	2
Pro Bowls	2	1
Games	1 4	15
Win %	64.29%	93.33%
Completion %	69.20%	66.52%
Big Time Throw Rate	8.10%	4.10%
Turnover Worthy Play Rate	2.10%	1.90%
Interceptions	10	6
Passing Touchdowns	24	22
Passing Yards / Game	237.25	246.73
Rushing Attempts / Game	4.14	8.20
Rushing Touchdowns / Game	0.36	0.87
Pressure to Sack Rate	18.0%	22.10%

In comparing contract seasons, Hurts performed better or the same as Murray on nine of 14 relevant performance metrics.

He was a more efficient rusher, played more games, won more games, and limited turnovers better than Murray did. It makes sense for Hurts to make similar, if not more, than Murray’s 2023 adjusted figure. 

Josh Allen (2021 extension)

The Bills paid Allen a six-year, $258-million contract ($43 million AAV). If this signing was adjusted to 2023, it would be worth a little more than $48 million AAV.*

Variable	Allen (‘20)	Hurts
Age (@ start of season)	25	25
Contract Number	2	2
Pro Bowls	1	1
Games	16	15
Win %	81.25%	93.33%
Completion %	69.20%	66.52%
Big Time Throw Rate	5.8%	4.10%
Turnover Worthy Play Rate	3.40%	1.90%
Interceptions	10	6
Passing Touchdowns	37	22
Passing Yards / Game	284.00	246.73
Rushing Attempts / Game	4.5	8.20
Rushing Touchdowns / Game	0.5	0.87
Pressure to Sack Rate	10.70%	22.10%

Based on contract seasons, Hurts performed better or the same as Allen in eight of 14 relevant performance metrics.

He limited his turnovers better than Allen did and was a more effective rusher. Based on the adjusted Allen figure, Hurts should make in the $40 million AAV, but other contextual factors such as playoff success and recent QB contract inflation helped boost Hurts over that threshold. 

Patrick Mahomes (2020 extension)

The Chiefs made Mahomes the sixth player ever to receive a decade-long commitment with a $450 million contract ($45 million AAV).

If this signing was adjusted to 2023, it would be worth a little less than $54,000,000 AAV.*

Variable	Mahomes (‘19)	Hurts
Age (@ start of season)	25	25
Contract Number	2	2
Pro Bowls	2	1
Games	14	15
Win %	78.57%	93.33%
Completion %	65.9%	66.52%
Big Time Throw Rate	5.7%	4.10%
Turnover Worthy Play Rate	2.5%	1.90%
Interceptions	5	6
Passing Touchdowns	26	22
Passing Yards / Game	287.93	246.73
Rushing Attempts / Game	1.36	8.20
Rushing Touchdowns / Game	0.14	0.87
Pressure to Sack Rate	11.4%	22.10%

During their contract seasons, Hurts outperformed or similarly performed to Mahomes in seven of 14 relevant metrics. 

Hurts had more rushing upside and thus another dynamic to his game. However, Mahomes had more league recognition and more success as a passer.

Mahomes signed a much longer deal, complicating the value comps. But Hurts is justified in being slightly lower than the adjusted 2023 Mahomes value.

*In the past five years quarterback contracts have increased on average 6.02% per year. 

The Extension Race: Setting the Market

The Eagles struck first in the extension race between them and the Bengals (Joe Burrow) and Chargers (Justin Herbert).

By extending Hurts first, the Eagles set the market for Burrow and Herbert to follow.

The quarterback market was already trending past $50 million AAV, but by signing first, the Eagles took a risk.

Being first is risky because there’s less information and the Eagles could’ve saved money if Burrow and Herbert signed for less than expected. 

But it’s equally likely the Eagles could’ve paid more if Burrow and Herbert contracts were higher than expected.

The Eagles instead trusted their research and process in reaching a deal with one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. Typically, the Eagles have moved quickly to extend their franchise quarterbacks. 

There was a similar race last year in the wide receiver market between Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin. Someone’s always to be first.

Fortunately for the Eagles, the Titans didn’t reset the receiver market and opted to trade Brown to Philadelphia for a first-round pick. Brown then set a personal best with 1,496 receiving yards to go along with 11 touchdowns in making the Pro Bowl.

The deal for Hurts is fair, and they hope the decision to extend their quarterback gets them back to the Super Bowl – and win it.

– Sam Finkel is a staff writer for InsideTheBirds.com who focuses on analytics.

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