October 11, 2024   5 MIN READ

Unhappy Marriage

Data Shows Lack of Complementary Football

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In the last three seasons, the Eagles have a combined record of 10-2 in their opening four games of the season – an incredibly impressive number on its face, until you realize that the two losses occurred this year.

The Eagles started out strong in 2022 and 20023, going 4-0 in both seasons.

There are some obvious reasons for this year’s losses, including the massive amount of injuries the Eagles have suffered, especially on offense.

But play calling, game management, inconsistent defense, and the inability to generate pressure, along with Jalen Hurts’ struggling pocket awareness, have also contributed to 2024’s slow start.

Nick Sirianni getty

GETTY IMAGES: In his bye week self-scout, Eagles HC Nick Sirianni and his staff should be emphasizing limiting turnovers and generating pressure.

In order to see how this season aligns with the past two, let’s compare:

OFFENSE

This year’s offense has the least amount of points, first downs, plays, drives, and points per game of the three.

Less plays can sometimes be indicative of increased efficiency, but not in this situation. Data shows the Eagles haven’t been able to convert plays into first downs or score as efficiently as they did in 2022 and 2023.

Interestingly, the 2024 offense has the most plays per drive and not the fewest first downs per drive.

But the latter is likely due to the fact that the 2023 Eagles scored significantly more than the 2024 version.

Regardless, the most plays-per-drive data is interesting and showcases some schematic differences.

The plays-per-drive metric is something that should continue to be tracked throughout the season, because if they’re able to get more drives, the result could be more successful plays.

This next graphic outlines more advanced offensive data:

This year’s offense has the least amount of yards and yards per play while also having the most turnovers, worst third-down percentage, and lowest time of possession on average.

These aren’t promising statistics. However, as of four games, the 2024 Eagles have been slightly better in the red zone than last season, although last year’s team did not fare well overall in the red zone, and the improvement is marginal.

The turnover statistics are extremely troubling and potentially explanative for many of the other troubles.

Looking at the table, turnovers have doubled each year for the first four games.

Here’s a look at how the Eagles have responded to pressure:

This category is indicative of offensive line and quarterback play. The Eagles have been atrocious in every category in comparison to the previous two seasons.

They have allowed significantly more pressure and sacks. “Pressure to Sack” essentially measures how many pressures it takes until a sack is allowed.

As the chart shows, the 2024 Eagles are allowing a lot more pressure and also allowing those pressures to turn into sacks at a much higher rate.

Now let’s move to the defensive side.

DEFENSE

The 2024 Eagles defense has allowed the most points, first downs, points per game, and plays per drive of the past three seasons.

If that wasn’t bad enough, it’s happened while seeing the fewest defensive opportunities (both in plays and drives).

Obviously, this defense has been terrible compared to the past two seasons.

Amazingly, there’s some data that shows improvement for the 2024 defense compared to the past two seasons.

The 2024 version has been excellent on third down and in the red zone, under the new scheme from defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

The defense is bending, not breaking, but the result hasn’t mattered as much because offense has been anemic.

It also doesn’t help that the Eagles have allowed scores on first and second down along with outside in the red zone – which makes their third-down and red-zone defense improvements somewhat misleading.

Also concerning, the Eagles haven’t generated turnovers. Despite opportunities, they’ve struggled significantly to flip the field for the offense.

This chart shows the major decline over the past two seasons:

Well chronicled is that this year’s defense has been awful at generating pressure and sacks.

They aren’t sending pressure as much, which has led to a much lower rate.

And even some of the limited pressures they’ve created haven’t turned into sacks.

For comparison, it took the 2022 Eagles on average 6.27 pressures to generate a sack, but almost double two years later, at 11.88.

The Eagles went from generating pressure on a third of their plays in 2023 to a quarter in 2024 – a significant decline.

Also, from 2022 to 2024, the Eagles have only produced one-third of the amount of their sacks through the first four games.

COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS

When looking at the 2024 Eagles, the data shows they aren’t playing complementary football.

They have a negative point, yard, drive, turnover, pressure, and sack differential, which means they’re giving to their opponents more than they’re generating in every category.

This trend illustrates how the 2024 Eagles have been collectively supbar. The offense isn’t doing its job, and neither is the defense.

CONCLUSION

This team can blame injuries for the offensive decline – which should improve with Lane Johnson, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith likely returning – but the Eagles’ struggles likely will continue until, or unless, they play complementary football.

The defense must generate pressure and force turnovers. Conversely, Hurts and the offense need to limit turnovers, handle pressure better, and ultimately score more.

If the Eagles didn’t make big changes during the bye week to address these shortcomings, it could be a long, disappointing season.

– Sam Finkel is a staff writer for InsideTheBirds.com whose focus is on analytics.

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